What global warming?

My final post for this year is also about the alleged global climate change (and yes, I promise to go more into photography again in 2010), but as you might have seen from my last few posts on this, I think that this is a crucial topic that deserves some time to think about. When our governments think about further regulating our lives (e.g. by adding new energy taxes), then they better have a clear scientific foundation for their actions. (I don’t think they have, so I promote to be very very cautious when making such far-reaching decisions.)

So, I took the time to actually look at some of the data myself and -despite not being a climate researcher- to draw some conclusions from this.

Specifically, I looked at the data of the weather station in Armagh, Northern Ireland. The records reach back until 1865 and can be obtained from the U.K. Met Office.

Now, if we are talking about “global warming” at an alarming rate then this should be reflected in individual station data as well, right?

The data available for Armagh are the average high and low temperatures for each month, and the rainfall. I just wanted to know about the temperatures, so I put the data into Excel and calculated annual averages from the highs and lows. The results where then plotted into a nice chart, and I also added ten-year moving averages and linear trend lines:


Armagh/Northern Ireland Weather Station Data, 1866-2008
Data Source: U.K. Met Office, Graph: Mark Zanzig

Hmmm. There are upswings and downswings, also reflected in the averages; the trendlines indicate a slight global warming. For the maximums Excel calculates the increase as 0.0041 °C per year (or 0.41 °C per century), and for the lows as 0.0047 °C per year (or 0.47 °C per century). This seems to be in line with the findings of others who say that global warming happens at the rate of about 0.6 °C per century.

Admittedly, towards 2008 the temperatures are slightly warmer than in previous years, but for 2008 the values are already going down again. In the case of the low temperatures, this has even affected the ten-year average, so it points down as well.

Especially interesting to me are the periods where the ten-year moving averages are actually decreasing (after World War II, until mid-1980s). Throughout this time the CO2 level has been rising, so it is a bit difficult to explain the development of the temperature just with the development of CO2.

For me, there is slight global warming of about 0.6 °C per century. For further more scientific analysis of the climate, I suggest to download the full NIPCC report on climate change. The case on “global warming” is closed – it is a non-existing problem.

Together we should now focus on making our elected “leaders” aware of that. And while we do that we should also make them aware that anti-democratic ideas (like the globally forced implementation of new laws to reduce CO2 emissions) are not desired by us, the people. (See Spiegel Online for further information [in German only]).

Having said that, I wish you a Happy New Year.

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Recommended reading at Zanzig.com

27-DEC-09 Welcome to the new CO2 world order
05-DEC-09 Climategate – go figure!
19-JUN-07 State of Fear
05-MAR-07 The CO2 Scam

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